The pressure of alumina inventory buildup became prominent, coupled with the decline in imported ore prices. The weak supply and demand situation continued to fluctuate downward. [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

Published: Apr 3, 2025 08:51

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SMM Alumina Morning Comment: The alumina market has recently shown a downward fluctuation trend. The most-traded contract fell slightly by 0.42% overnight, closing at 2,878 yuan/mt, with open interest increasing to 214,000 lots. The ex-factory price for spot transactions in Guangxi dropped to 3,038 yuan/mt, while the delivery-to-factory price for tenders in north-west China was 3,145 yuan/mt. At the industry level, SMM's spot-futures price spread data showed that the spot price was at a premium of 96 yuan/mt over the most-traded contract. The total warrant volume increased to 301,200 mt, but regional differentiation was evident. In the overseas market, the alumina price in Western Australia, converted to yuan, was 3,051 yuan/mt, still 310 yuan/mt higher than the domestic price. The import window remained closed, while the export cost of $450/mt was also higher than the international price. On the fundamental side, the weekly operating rate of domestic alumina continued to decline to 87.3 million mt/year, while the operating capacity of aluminum, converted to alumina demand, was 84.47 million mt/year, still lower than the actual supply. The increase in imported bauxite has alleviated raw material pressure, keeping bauxite prices under pressure. Currently, aluminum plants are mainly executing long-term contracts for procurement, with some companies actively reducing inventories, leading to a MoM decrease of 44,000 mt in raw material inventory. Against the backdrop of ample market supply, alumina prices may continue to fluctuate downward in the short term.

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